The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA.
Identifieur interne : 000172 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000171; suivant : 000173The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA.
Auteurs : Eduardo Massad [Brésil] ; Marcelo Nascimento Burattini ; Francisco Antonio Coutinho ; Cláudio José StruchinerSource :
- Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz [ 1678-8060 ] ; 2010.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- Wicri :
- geographic : Brésil.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , ethnology : Brazil.
- geographic : Argentina, Chile, United States.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Models, Biological, Risk Assessment, Travel.
Abstract
We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 +/- 9 from Chile, 136 +/- 27 from the USA and 301 +/- 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.
DOI: 10.1590/s0074-02762010000200012
PubMed: 20428678
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Burattini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, Francisco Antonio" sort="Coutinho, Francisco Antonio" uniqKey="Coutinho F" first="Francisco Antonio" last="Coutinho">Francisco Antonio Coutinho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Struchiner, Claudio Jose" sort="Struchiner, Claudio Jose" uniqKey="Struchiner C" first="Cláudio José" last="Struchiner">Cláudio José Struchiner</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2010">2010</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:20428678</idno><idno type="pmid">20428678</idno><idno type="doi">10.1590/s0074-02762010000200012</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000245</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000245</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000245</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000245</idno><idno 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last="Burattini">Marcelo Nascimento Burattini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, Francisco Antonio" sort="Coutinho, Francisco Antonio" uniqKey="Coutinho F" first="Francisco Antonio" last="Coutinho">Francisco Antonio Coutinho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Struchiner, Claudio Jose" sort="Struchiner, Claudio Jose" uniqKey="Struchiner C" first="Cláudio José" last="Struchiner">Cláudio José Struchiner</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz</title><idno type="eISSN">1678-8060</idno><imprint><date when="2010" type="published">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Argentina</term><term>Brazil (ethnology)</term><term>Chile</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Risk Assessment</term><term>Travel</term><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Argentine</term><term>Brésil (ethnologie)</term><term>Chili</term><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term><term>Voyage</term><term>États-Unis d'Amérique</term><term>Évaluation des risques</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="ethnology" xml:lang="en"><term>Brazil</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" xml:lang="en"><term>Argentina</term><term>Chile</term><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="ethnologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Brésil</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Risk Assessment</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Argentine</term><term>Chili</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term><term>Voyage</term><term>États-Unis d'Amérique</term><term>Évaluation des risques</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Brésil</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 +/- 9 from Chile, 136 +/- 27 from the USA and 301 +/- 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">20428678</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2010</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>30</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2019</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>06</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1678-8060</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>105</Volume><Issue>2</Issue><PubDate><Year>2010</Year><Month>Mar</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>179-83</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S0074-02762010000200012</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 +/- 9 from Chile, 136 +/- 27 from the USA and 301 +/- 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Massad</LastName><ForeName>Eduardo</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brasil. edmassad@usp.br</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Burattini</LastName><ForeName>Marcelo Nascimento</ForeName><Initials>MN</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Coutinho</LastName><ForeName>Francisco Antonio</ForeName><Initials>FA</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Struchiner</LastName><ForeName>Cláudio José</ForeName><Initials>CJ</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Brazil</Country><MedlineTA>Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>7502619</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0074-0276</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001118" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Argentina</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001938" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Brazil</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000208" MajorTopicYN="N">ethnology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002677" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Chile</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053118" MajorTopicYN="Y">Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008954" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Biological</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018570" MajorTopicYN="N">Risk Assessment</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014195" MajorTopicYN="Y">Travel</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014481" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">United States</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2009</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>21</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2010</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>02</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2010</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>30</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2010</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>30</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2010</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>31</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20428678</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0074-02762010000200012</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1590/s0074-02762010000200012</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Brésil</li></country><region><li>État de São Paulo</li></region><settlement><li>São Paulo</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de São Paulo</li></orgName></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento" sort="Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento" uniqKey="Burattini M" first="Marcelo Nascimento" last="Burattini">Marcelo Nascimento Burattini</name><name sortKey="Coutinho, Francisco Antonio" sort="Coutinho, Francisco Antonio" uniqKey="Coutinho F" first="Francisco Antonio" last="Coutinho">Francisco Antonio Coutinho</name><name sortKey="Struchiner, Claudio Jose" sort="Struchiner, Claudio Jose" uniqKey="Struchiner C" first="Cláudio José" last="Struchiner">Cláudio José Struchiner</name></noCountry><country name="Brésil"><region name="État de São Paulo"><name sortKey="Massad, Eduardo" sort="Massad, Eduardo" uniqKey="Massad E" first="Eduardo" last="Massad">Eduardo Massad</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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